Australia’s fertility rate is almost irreversible, but recovery begins with hope

To bring a child into the world, our bodies have to achieve something close to perfect internal harmony. The balance is so delicate it’s a wonder any of us were born at all.

The same is true for our external environment.

But fertility doesn’t exist in a vacuum – it’s shaped by the world around us. Economic pressures, housing insecurity, job instability, a lack of childcare and shifting societal expectations all form the backdrop against which people decide whether or not to have children.

Right now, that backdrop is increasingly inhospitable in Australia.

Total fertility rates (TFR) over the past 30 years have gradually dropped since the Baby Boom in 1993, shifting from 1.86 to 1.5.

Dr Liz Allen is a demographer from the Centre for Social Policy Research at The Australian National University. She warns that Australia’s TFR is so low that “it would be impossible to come back from.”

“Replacement level is a statistical indication of the average number of births per woman in a particular time period – given the relevant age-specific rates of births during that period,” Allen explains.

“That replacement level is 2.1, and that indicates replacing a woman and a partner, and a little bit extra for the impact of mortality [which is the point one]. It’s a synthetic measure, but it’s a good indicator for examining trends over time.

“In Australia, we’ve seen below replacement fertility rates since the mid-1970s. What that means is essentially, we aren’t replacing ourselves through births.

“This is an unprecedented demographic time in our history.”

Chance vs choice

The drivers of this decline reflect broader socio-economic realities, as well as social shifts.

Today, women have greater freedom to pursue education and careers, supported by advances in healthcare and contraception. At the same time, moving away from traditional gender roles has significantly reshaped when and how people choose to start families.

However, Allen’s research shows the downward trend isn’t purely driven by choice.

“Total fertility rates are not a problem in their own right. If it’s an indication of choice and empowerment, then who are we to say it’s bad?” she says.  

“But here’s the thing. When we ask in surveys what people’s intended or desired number of children, what they say is generally higher than what they achieve. In other words, couples don’t tend to have the number of children they desire.

“It is not a free choice, but instead, the barriers to achieving that much-wanted family are insurmountable. That, of course, is associated with rising cost of living, education costs, housing and so on.”

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Freezing hope or freezing fertility?

In Australia, the number of women freezing their eggs and embryos has surged since 2020. According to data from the National Perinatal Epidemiology and Statistics Unit (NPESU), there was a reported 17. 1 per cent increase in treatment cycles from 2019, a number that grew to 24.6 per cent by 2022.

Egg freezing is a process that can be emotionally and financially taxing and doesn’t guarantee a baby. It can create a false sense of security when it comes to family planning.

“We’ve seen predatory fertility clinics sell all sorts of junk science,” says Allen.

“The so-called egg timer test has been found to be largely flawed, but it’s still used by medical professionals as an indication of whether or not a woman has the capability to fall pregnant naturally.

“We need women to be informed about reproductive health as we age and about the fact that if we delay having children, the more likely we will have difficulty falling pregnant naturally.”

Same-sex couples face even greater costs and barriers on their journey to start a family.

Earlier this year, the federal government committed to providing Medicare rebates for LGBTIQ+ couples and single people accessing assisted reproductive technology. While this is a win, for many couples, there are still plenty of hurdles to overcome.

“We’re in uncharted territory when we think about the increasing rates of egg freezing. Of course, none of the conversations that we’ve had talk about non-heteronormative couples,” Allen says.

“On one hand, technological improvements aid a whole range of family types, but policy and the costs associated with that healthcare have not kept pace.

“It’s a conundrum of outdated surrogacy laws and the funding for various medical treatments for those that do require IVF.”

@10newsfirst

Melbourne has been named Australia’s least fertile state, as rental prices and cost of living expenses trigger a birth rate plunge. The baby drought is set to impact Melbourne’s inner and middle suburbs, which are now deemed unaffordable for younger people. #10NewsFirst #Melbourne #Baby #RentalCrisis #CostofLiving

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Hope for the future

So, what’s the solution to Australia’s fertility dilemma? Allen says we must start with restoring hope.

“The solution to all of this is pretty simple – ensuring that for Aussies, tomorrow feels hopeful, that there is security in tomorrow, and tomorrow is worth living.”

Fostering such hope will take a multifaceted response from the Australian government.

“It means investing in these four vital policy areas: housing affordability, economic security, gender equality and climate change, because these four things go to the heart of a range of concerns that Aussies hold, no matter their age,” Allen says.

“We need to change the narrative that hope is not lost and that having a family in today’s environment feels possible.