The Prime Minister of France just toppled his own Government. What now?

France has just lost its Prime Minister, together with his entire government, after only nine months in office.

On 8 September, French PM François Bayrou failed to secure a confidence vote in the National Assembly, one he had called himself.

Yes, you read that right.

364 MPs voted against his Government, 164 for, and 15 abstained. A significant defeat.

So why did Bayrou bring down his own government, and how?

Since the 2022 elections, no party has held a clear majority in the National Assembly. President Macron tried to break the deadlock in June 2024 by dissolving the Assembly and for calling elections. The gamble backfired spectacularly, returning an even more fragmented chamber. Forming a durable government has since proved nearly impossible.

France has now had three prime ministers in less than a year: Attal, Barnier, and Bayrou – the worst government instability in nearly seven decades.

Bayrou led a centre-right coalition, but his push to draft the next budget united enemies across the spectrum from the far left (La France Insoumise) to the moderate left (Parti Socialiste), to the far right (National Rally).

Until now, these parties hesitated to topple a government for fear of appearing reckless. But on 15 July, Bayrou announced a plan to slash spending by €43.8 billion — roughly 10% of the budget — and to reduce French debt. The French public firmly rejected what they saw as austerity, emboldening opposition forces.

Budget disputes had already sunk the Barnier government last December. Bayrou was also under fire for suggesting that the French give up not one but two public holidays to boost economic growth. This went down like a lead ballon.

Facing near-certain defeat from this unlikely alliance that would have voted against his budget and censored his government in September or October, Bayrou opted to call the vote himself much earlier. It was a bold, if unorthodox, move: he could portray opposition parties as preferring chaos to compromise. His chances were very thin, but not inexistant.

In the run-up to last night’s vote, he opened his office to all party leaders and all sorts of medias, projecting openness. Yet he offered few concessions, sticking to his mission of curbing deficit and debt. Bayrou has championed fiscal restraint for decades, and may also be eyeing a 2027 presidential run.

But in France, prime ministers who chase the presidency nearly always lose, so it might be a be a better strategy to lose office with some panache, and have enough time to prepare for the presidential elections.

What’s next for France?

The most likely scenario is a new prime minister appointed by Macron within days or a fortnight. Until then, Bayrou remains in caretaker mode.

Names being ushered in Paris include moderate socialists such as Olivier Faure and Bernard Cazeneuve, current finance minister Eric Lombard, former Sarkozy minister Xavier Bertrand, current Defence minister Sébastien Lecornu. But Emmanuel Macron enjoys surprising everyone.

Regardless of whom may be appointed, the new leader will face the same fractured Assembly. A centre-left coalition might survive longer than Bayrou’s centre-right one, but instability looms. For now, France seems stuck with short-lived minority governments until National Assembly general elections scheduled for after the May 2027 presidential race.

The second possibility is another snap election for the National Assembly within weeks. President Macron can do this using his constitutional powers. But this is risky. He knows it because he did it last year and it was a debacle. With a new dissolution, his political group Ensemble pour la République would likely suffer further losses, while the far right could surge, possibly even forming a government of completely inexperienced ministers, as key figures of the National Rally have never ruled at national level.

A third scenario would be a German-style coalition deal. Large parties could negotiate a governing program with real compromises, acknowledging that cooperation beats paralysis. You may think this represents the most effective solution, but cross-party collaboration is alien to contemporary French political culture. Current parties remain wedded to “my way or the highway” politics.

Is instability now built into French politics?

The turbulences since 2024 look set to last until at least 2027. This breaks with the relative stability achieved under the Fifth Republic, established in 1958 to prevent the chaos of the Fourth Republic, which saw 24 governments in 12 years.

The Fifth Republic’s strength has always been its efficiency at delivering a majority rule, partly due to the two-round runoff voting system in single-member constituencies that is designed to keep small parties at bay. But it was never designed for coalition politics, leaving today’s fragmented parliament difficult to manage.

Perhaps the Fifth Republic has run its course. Dissatisfaction with state institutions is rising, and calls for a more democratic Sixth Republic have grown louder. Bayrou himself has long supported such major reform.

For now, though, French politics remains messy. Stability – for Brussels, for creditors, and for the French themselves – will only come with a clear majority government, and that may require a shakeup of the institutions. No one knows whether that stability will arrive next year, in 2027, or beyond.