What does France’s vote of no confidence mean?

The minority government of right-wing Prime Minister Michel Barnier has been ousted by an unlikely coalition of French MPs from the far left, the left and the far right.

As the French Lower House – the National Assembly – would not vote in favour of Barnier’s proposed 2025 budget, the Prime Minister used his executive powers to pass his 2025 budget bill into law without a vote from Members of Parliament.

In response, the parties in opposition delivered a large vote of no confidence, toppling the government.

To put this in context, the last successful vote of no confidence happened 62 years ago, in 1962.

Barnier’s minority government was fragile, and its downfall was always likely.

Where to next?

As per the French Constitution, the National Assembly cannot be dissolved until July 2025, meaning that France’s political landscape will remain precarious at least until then. Coalitions will form and fall, due to a lack of collaboration between French political parties that are inclined to be more sectarian than cooperative.

While the far left and the far right would like to see President Macron resign, he has been mandated by the French people until May 2027. A resignation would be a personal decision, but nothing so far indicates that this is a path he will choose to follow. 

For now, Barnier will remain PM, but in a caretaker position until Emmanuel Macron appoints a new prime minister based on a new political majority. This could happen in a few days or in a few weeks.

There are two likely scenarios, and a third possible one.

First, President Macron will try to create a new and broader majority that would support his centrist MPs and his political agenda. He will negotiate to secure the support of a few more independents, attempt to keep the traditional conservative right on side, while shifting to the centre-left by onboarding moderate left-wing MPs and, perhaps, appointing his prime minister from among them as a negotiating chip.

Those moderate left-wing MPs he needs to secure, however, are unlikely to support him. They have more to gain in sticking with the alliance they have helped form: the New Popular Front. This alliance is a group of left-wing parties – far left, greens, socialists, democrats and more – that have little capacity to work together but hope to implement a real left-wing agenda of reforms.

Although the New Popular Front is the political group with the largest number of MPs in the National Assembly, it still doesn’t have the numbers for a majority government. So, to form government, it will have to secure MPs from the centre. That is, left-wing compatible Macron supporters, a species that is getting rarer, making this second scenario equally precarious.

If such a coalition is formed, France will switch to a left-wing government. That new government would be precarious, as its motley coalition would have to be in constant negotiations over bills.

A third scenario, possible but trickier, would be for President Macron to re-appoint the Barnier Government and require the government change the budget bill to please the opposition parties, so as to not face a second vote of no confidence.

While several scenarios exist over the composition of France’s next government, what remains certain is that it is likely to be short-lived.

Between 1947 and 1958 France had 22 governments. It survived.

While France may be heading for some governmental instability in the coming months, and perhaps years, its democratic institutions and culture will sustain it.

But wait, what about the 2025 budget?

For now, the 2025 budget is a secondary issue. First, a new government needs appointing.

There will be no American-style shutdown in France, as the country operates differently.

However, as a member of the European Union, France is supposed to have a yearly budgetary deficit under three per cent. Currently, it is above five per cent.

Whichever government comes next will face enormous pressure to reduce the government’s deficit, which has greatly increased since the COVID era.

As attention turns to this question, it may continue the instability in France.